The p(doom) leaderboard
What the people building, studying and funding AI say are the odds it ends in catastrophe. Self-stated numbers only, ranges kept as ranges, every row linked to its source and backed by a quote.
- 01Roman YampolskiyAI safety researcher, University of Louisville99.999999%
- 02Eliezer YudkowskyCo-founder, Machine Intelligence Research Institute99.5%
- 03Dan HendrycksDirector, Center for AI Safety>80%
- 04Daniel KokotajloExecutive Director, AI Futures Project; former OpenAI researcher70%
- 05Zvi MowshowitzWriter, Don't Worry About the Vase70%
- 06Emad MostaqueFounder, Stability AI50%
- 07Holden KarnofskyCo-founder, Open Philanthropy10–90%
- 08Jan LeikeAlignment researcher, Anthropic; former Superalignment co-lead, OpenAI10–90%
- 09Paul ChristianoHead of AI safety, US AI Safety Institute (2024); founder of ARC46%
- 10Joep MeindertsmaFounder, PauseAI40%
- 11Eli LiflandForecaster; co-founder, AI Futures Project35–40%
- 12Scott AlexanderWriter, Astral Codex Ten33%
- 13Emmett ShearCo-founder, Twitch; former interim CEO, OpenAI5–50%
- 14Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic25%
- 15Yoshua BengioTuring Award laureate; founder, Mila & LawZero20%
- 16Elon MuskCEO, Tesla & SpaceX; founder, xAI20%
- 17Reid Hoffmannot in medianCo-founder, LinkedIn2 / 10
- 18Lina KhanFormer Chair, US Federal Trade Commission15%
- 19Vitalik ButerinCo-founder, Ethereum12%
- 20Geoffrey HintonNobel laureate (Physics, 2024); Professor emeritus, University of Toronto~10%
- 21Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin & FiveThirtyEight5–10%
- 22Yann LeCunTuring Award laureate; former Chief AI Scientist, Meta≈0%
= wording checked against the primary source (post, article or transcript) on Oct 21, 2026, with the supporting quote on each profile. Definitions differ: some speakers mean extinction, others “very bad outcomes”, and time horizons are often unstated. Bars show the stated range and the dot marks its midpoint, which is what the index uses. Statements that aren't probabilities are shown but left out of the median.
Surveys & groups
| Group | p(doom) | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI researchers (2,778 surveyed) | 5% | Jan 2024 | AI Impacts, Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI |
| AI safety researchers (44 surveyed) | 30% | Jun 2021 | Rob Bensinger, Existential risk from AI survey results |
| Superforecasters (XPT) | 0.38% | Jul 2023 | Forecasting Research Institute, Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament |
Shown for context; not included in the index median.
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What moved the index, the week's rogue-AI incidents, and who changed their p(doom). Five minutes, every Monday. No hype, every number sourced.