Jan Leike p(doom)
Jan Leike (Alignment researcher, Anthropic; former Superalignment co-lead, OpenAI) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 10–90%. That is higher than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Statement history
- Aug 7, 2023
10–90%
“[Rob Wiblin: “My guess is that it's more than 10% and less than 90%.”] Jan Leike: Yeah. That's probably the range I would give too.”
Caveat: he agrees with the interviewer's range after calling p(doom) not 'a really useful question'. Counted at the 50% midpoint.
80,000 Hours PodcastVerified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (50% here) when computing the expert median.
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