Doom Index / p(doom) / Roman Yampolskiy
Researcher · rank 1 of 22
Roman Yampolskiy p(doom)
Roman Yampolskiy (AI safety researcher, University of Louisville) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 99.999999%. That is higher than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Latest stated p(doom)
99.999999%
0%Median 38%100%
Stated Mar 12, 2024
Statement history
- Mar 12, 2024
99.999999%
“I am at 99.999999%”
X (@romanyam)Verified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (100% here) when computing the expert median.
See the full leaderboardOther experts' p(doom)
Eliezer Yudkowsky 99.5%Dan Hendrycks >80%Daniel Kokotajlo 70%Zvi Mowshowitz 70%Emad Mostaque 50%Holden Karnofsky 10–90%Jan Leike 10–90%Paul Christiano 46%Joep Meindertsma 40%Eli Lifland 35–40%Scott Alexander 33%Emmett Shear 5–50%Dario Amodei 25%Yoshua Bengio 20%Elon Musk 20%Reid Hoffman 2 / 10Lina Khan 15%Vitalik Buterin 12%Geoffrey Hinton ~10%Nate Silver 5–10%Yann LeCun ≈0%
Every Monday · free
The Weekly Doom Report
What moved the index, the week's rogue-AI incidents, and who changed their p(doom). Five minutes, every Monday. No hype, every number sourced.
Placeholder form. Connect Buttondown or Beehiiv before launch. Nothing is collected yet.