Doom Index / p(doom) / Dario Amodei
Industry · rank 14 of 22
Dario Amodei p(doom)
Dario Amodei (CEO, Anthropic) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 25%. That is lower than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Latest stated p(doom)
25%
0%Median 38%100%
Stated Sep 17, 2025
Statement history
- Sep 17, 2025
25%
“There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly”
Axios also reports him saying there is a '75% chance that things go really, really well.'
Axios AI+ DC SummitVerified Oct 21, 2026 - Oct 6, 2023
10–25%
“…chance that something goes, you know, really quite catastrophically wrong on the scale of, you know, human civilization, you know, it might be somewhere between 10 and 25 percent.”
The Logan Bartlett ShowVerified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (25% here) when computing the expert median.
See the full leaderboardOther experts' p(doom)
Roman Yampolskiy 99.999999%Eliezer Yudkowsky 99.5%Dan Hendrycks >80%Daniel Kokotajlo 70%Zvi Mowshowitz 70%Emad Mostaque 50%Holden Karnofsky 10–90%Jan Leike 10–90%Paul Christiano 46%Joep Meindertsma 40%Eli Lifland 35–40%Scott Alexander 33%Emmett Shear 5–50%Yoshua Bengio 20%Elon Musk 20%Reid Hoffman 2 / 10Lina Khan 15%Vitalik Buterin 12%Geoffrey Hinton ~10%Nate Silver 5–10%Yann LeCun ≈0%
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