Reid Hoffman p(doom)
Reid Hoffman (Co-founder, LinkedIn) has rated the existential threat of AI at 2 / 10. That is a threat rating rather than a probability, so it is not counted in the median.
Statement history
- Aug 23, 2024
2 / 10
“I'm going to go for two on that answer.”
He rated 'the existential threat of A.I.' on a 1–10 scale (1 = no threat, 10 = extinction). That is a threat rating, not a probability, so it is shown but left out of the median.
PBS NewsHourVerified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
Because this is a 1–10 threat rating rather than a probability, it is shown for completeness but excluded from the expert median.
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