Geoffrey Hinton p(doom)
Geoffrey Hinton (Nobel laureate (Physics, 2024); Professor emeritus, University of Toronto) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at ~10%. That is lower than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Statement history
- Sep 9, 2026
~10%
“A 10% chance seems not an unreasonable estimate to me, but nobody really knows how to give a sensible estimate”
Endorsing another researcher's '>10% within a decade' figure rather than giving his own point estimate.
BBC Newsnight (via Business Insider)Verified Oct 21, 2026 - Dec 27, 2024
10–20%
“Not really, 10% to 20%.”
Answering whether he had changed his earlier one-in-10 estimate of extinction within three decades.
The Guardian (BBC Radio 4 Today)Verified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (10% here) when computing the expert median.
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