Doom Index / p(doom) / Emmett Shear
Industry · rank 13 of 22
Emmett Shear p(doom)
Emmett Shear (Co-founder, Twitch; former interim CEO, OpenAI) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 5–50%. That is lower than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Latest stated p(doom)
5–50%
0%Median 38%100%
Stated Jun 16, 2023
Statement history
- Jun 16, 2023
5–50%
“My probability of doom […] is between 5% and 50%. So there's a wide spread.”
Podcast quote as transcribed by El País; the original video transcript could not be retrieved.
The Logan Bartlett Show (quoted by El País)Verified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (27.5% here) when computing the expert median.
See the full leaderboardOther experts' p(doom)
Roman Yampolskiy 99.999999%Eliezer Yudkowsky 99.5%Dan Hendrycks >80%Daniel Kokotajlo 70%Zvi Mowshowitz 70%Emad Mostaque 50%Holden Karnofsky 10–90%Jan Leike 10–90%Paul Christiano 46%Joep Meindertsma 40%Eli Lifland 35–40%Scott Alexander 33%Dario Amodei 25%Yoshua Bengio 20%Elon Musk 20%Reid Hoffman 2 / 10Lina Khan 15%Vitalik Buterin 12%Geoffrey Hinton ~10%Nate Silver 5–10%Yann LeCun ≈0%
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