Holden Karnofsky p(doom)
Holden Karnofsky (Co-founder, Open Philanthropy) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 10–90%. That is higher than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Statement history
- Aug 29, 2022
10–90%
“I don't currently have much sympathy for someone who's highly confident that AI takeover would or would not happen (that is, for anyone who thinks the odds of AI takeover in this nearcast are under 10% or over 90%).”
Caveat: this is the range of views he considers reasonable, not a personal point estimate. Counted at the 50% midpoint.
AI Alignment ForumVerified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (50% here) when computing the expert median.
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