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Doom Index / p(doom) / Daniel Kokotajlo
Researcher · rank 4 of 22

Daniel Kokotajlo p(doom)

Daniel Kokotajlo (Executive Director, AI Futures Project; former OpenAI researcher) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 70%. That is higher than the 38% median of the experts we track.

Latest stated p(doom)
70%
0%Median 38%100%
Stated Jul 13, 2026

Statement history

  • Jul 13, 2026

    70%

    “…it's possible that we'll end up essentially creating a new species that ends up ruling the world with a 70% chance that this goes horribly wrong”

    From an automated episode transcript. He frames 70% as things 'going horribly wrong' (AI takeover or comparable catastrophe), not strictly extinction.

    The Diary Of A CEO (Steven Bartlett)Wording checked against the primary sourceVerified Oct 21, 2026

Context

“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.

The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (70% here) when computing the expert median.

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Other experts' p(doom)

Roman Yampolskiy 99.999999%Eliezer Yudkowsky 99.5%Dan Hendrycks >80%Zvi Mowshowitz 70%Emad Mostaque 50%Holden Karnofsky 10–90%Jan Leike 10–90%Paul Christiano 46%Joep Meindertsma 40%Eli Lifland 35–40%Scott Alexander 33%Emmett Shear 5–50%Dario Amodei 25%Yoshua Bengio 20%Elon Musk 20%Reid Hoffman 2 / 10Lina Khan 15%Vitalik Buterin 12%Geoffrey Hinton ~10%Nate Silver 5–10%Yann LeCun ≈0%
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