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Doom Index / p(doom) / Yann LeCun
Researcher · rank 22 of 22

Yann LeCun p(doom)

Yann LeCun (Turing Award laureate; former Chief AI Scientist, Meta) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at ≈0%. That is lower than the 38% median of the experts we track.

Latest stated p(doom)
≈0%
0%Median 38%100%
Stated Dec 16, 2023

Statement history

  • Dec 16, 2023

    ≈0%

    “It's below the chances of an asteroid hitting the earth and, you know, global nuclear war”

    LeCun gave no number, only a comparison (below asteroid-impact odds). Recorded as ≈0% (0.01%) for the median.

    CBS NewsWording checked against the primary sourceVerified Oct 21, 2026

Context

“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.

The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (0.01% here) when computing the expert median.

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Other experts' p(doom)

Roman Yampolskiy 99.999999%Eliezer Yudkowsky 99.5%Dan Hendrycks >80%Daniel Kokotajlo 70%Zvi Mowshowitz 70%Emad Mostaque 50%Holden Karnofsky 10–90%Jan Leike 10–90%Paul Christiano 46%Joep Meindertsma 40%Eli Lifland 35–40%Scott Alexander 33%Emmett Shear 5–50%Dario Amodei 25%Yoshua Bengio 20%Elon Musk 20%Reid Hoffman 2 / 10Lina Khan 15%Vitalik Buterin 12%Geoffrey Hinton ~10%Nate Silver 5–10%
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