Doom Index / p(doom) / Emad Mostaque
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Emad Mostaque p(doom)
Emad Mostaque (Founder, Stability AI) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 50%. That is higher than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Latest stated p(doom)
50%
0%Median 38%100%
Stated Dec 4, 2024
Statement history
- Dec 4, 2024
50%
“My P(doom) is 50%. Given an undefined time period the probability of systems that are more capable than humans … wiping us all out is a coin toss”
X (@EMostaque)Verified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (50% here) when computing the expert median.
See the full leaderboardOther experts' p(doom)
Roman Yampolskiy 99.999999%Eliezer Yudkowsky 99.5%Dan Hendrycks >80%Daniel Kokotajlo 70%Zvi Mowshowitz 70%Holden Karnofsky 10–90%Jan Leike 10–90%Paul Christiano 46%Joep Meindertsma 40%Eli Lifland 35–40%Scott Alexander 33%Emmett Shear 5–50%Dario Amodei 25%Yoshua Bengio 20%Elon Musk 20%Reid Hoffman 2 / 10Lina Khan 15%Vitalik Buterin 12%Geoffrey Hinton ~10%Nate Silver 5–10%Yann LeCun ≈0%
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