Doom Index / p(doom) / Zvi Mowshowitz
Commentator · rank 5 of 22
Zvi Mowshowitz p(doom)
Zvi Mowshowitz (Writer, Don't Worry About the Vase) has put the risk of AI causing human extinction or a comparably bad outcome at 70%. That is higher than the 38% median of the experts we track.
Latest stated p(doom)
70%
0%Median 38%100%
Stated Sep 6, 2025
Statement history
- Sep 6, 2025
70%
“[Host: “So last time we spoke, I believe your p(doom) was 70%. Has it ticked down at all?”] … I don't think it changed substantially, though.”
He confirms the host's 70% rather than restating the number.
The Cognitive Revolution podcastVerified Oct 21, 2026
Context
“p(doom)” is shorthand for the probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or a similarly irreversible catastrophe. Speakers rarely share one definition or time horizon, so compare numbers with care.
The Doom Index uses the midpoint of each person's latest stated range (70% here) when computing the expert median.
See the full leaderboardOther experts' p(doom)
Roman Yampolskiy 99.999999%Eliezer Yudkowsky 99.5%Dan Hendrycks >80%Daniel Kokotajlo 70%Emad Mostaque 50%Holden Karnofsky 10–90%Jan Leike 10–90%Paul Christiano 46%Joep Meindertsma 40%Eli Lifland 35–40%Scott Alexander 33%Emmett Shear 5–50%Dario Amodei 25%Yoshua Bengio 20%Elon Musk 20%Reid Hoffman 2 / 10Lina Khan 15%Vitalik Buterin 12%Geoffrey Hinton ~10%Nate Silver 5–10%Yann LeCun ≈0%
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