{
 "updated": "2026-10-21",
 "experts": [
  {
   "name": "Roman Yampolskiy",
   "slug": "roman-yampolskiy",
   "role": "AI safety researcher, University of Louisville",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2024-03-12",
     "low": 99.999999,
     "high": 99.999999,
     "display": "99.999999%",
     "source_name": "X (@romanyam)",
     "source_url": "https://x.com/romanyam/status/1767575356155027503",
     "quote": "I am at 99.999999%",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Eliezer Yudkowsky",
   "slug": "eliezer-yudkowsky",
   "role": "Co-founder, Machine Intelligence Research Institute",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2025-09-12",
     "low": 99.5,
     "high": 99.5,
     "display": "99.5%",
     "source_name": "The New York Times (Kevin Roose)",
     "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/technology/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-book.html",
     "quote": "The first time I met Eliezer Yudkowsky, he said there was a 99.5% chance that A.I. was going to kill me.",
     "quote_kind": "reported",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Reported speech: the figure is relayed by the reporter, not quoted directly."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Dan Hendrycks",
   "slug": "dan-hendrycks",
   "role": "Director, Center for AI Safety",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-04-02",
     "low": 80,
     "high": 80,
     "display": ">80%",
     "source_name": "X (@DanHendrycks)",
     "source_url": "https://x.com/DanHendrycks/status/1642394635657162753",
     "quote": "As it happens, my p(doom) > 80%, but it has been lower in the past. Two years ago it was ~20%.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Stated as a lower bound; counted as 80%."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "slug": "daniel-kokotajlo",
   "role": "Executive Director, AI Futures Project; former OpenAI researcher",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "low": 70,
     "high": 70,
     "display": "70%",
     "source_name": "The Diary Of A CEO (Steven Bartlett)",
     "source_url": "https://podcastrex.com/shows/the-diary-of-a-ceo-with-steven-bartlett/openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-going-horribly-wrong/transcript",
     "quote": "…it's possible that we'll end up essentially creating a new species that ends up ruling the world with a 70% chance that this goes horribly wrong",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "From an automated episode transcript. He frames 70% as things 'going horribly wrong' (AI takeover or comparable catastrophe), not strictly extinction."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Zvi Mowshowitz",
   "slug": "zvi-mowshowitz",
   "role": "Writer, Don't Worry About the Vase",
   "camp": "commentator",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2025-09-06",
     "low": 70,
     "high": 70,
     "display": "70%",
     "source_name": "The Cognitive Revolution podcast",
     "source_url": "https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/zvi-mowshowitz-on-longer-timelines-rl-induced-doom-and-why-china-is-refusing-h20s/",
     "quote": "[Host: “So last time we spoke, I believe your p(doom) was 70%. Has it ticked down at all?”] … I don't think it changed substantially, though.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "He confirms the host's 70% rather than restating the number."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Emad Mostaque",
   "slug": "emad-mostaque",
   "role": "Founder, Stability AI",
   "camp": "industry",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2024-12-04",
     "low": 50,
     "high": 50,
     "display": "50%",
     "source_name": "X (@EMostaque)",
     "source_url": "https://x.com/EMostaque/status/1864266899170767105",
     "quote": "My P(doom) is 50%. Given an undefined time period the probability of systems that are more capable than humans … wiping us all out is a coin toss",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Holden Karnofsky",
   "slug": "holden-karnofsky",
   "role": "Co-founder, Open Philanthropy",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2022-08-29",
     "low": 10,
     "high": 90,
     "display": "10–90%",
     "source_name": "AI Alignment Forum",
     "source_url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/rCJQAkPTEypGjSJ8X/how-might-we-align-transformative-ai-if-it-s-developed-very",
     "quote": "I don't currently have much sympathy for someone who's highly confident that AI takeover would or would not happen (that is, for anyone who thinks the odds of AI takeover in this nearcast are under 10% or over 90%).",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Caveat: this is the range of views he considers reasonable, not a personal point estimate. Counted at the 50% midpoint."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Jan Leike",
   "slug": "jan-leike",
   "role": "Alignment researcher, Anthropic; former Superalignment co-lead, OpenAI",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-08-07",
     "low": 10,
     "high": 90,
     "display": "10–90%",
     "source_name": "80,000 Hours Podcast",
     "source_url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/jan-leike-superalignment/",
     "quote": "[Rob Wiblin: “My guess is that it's more than 10% and less than 90%.”] Jan Leike: Yeah. That's probably the range I would give too.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Caveat: he agrees with the interviewer's range after calling p(doom) not 'a really useful question'. Counted at the 50% midpoint."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Paul Christiano",
   "slug": "paul-christiano",
   "role": "Head of AI safety, US AI Safety Institute (2024); founder of ARC",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-04-27",
     "low": 46,
     "high": 46,
     "display": "46%",
     "source_name": "LessWrong — “My views on doom”",
     "source_url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xWMqsvHapP3nwdSW8/my-views-on-doom",
     "quote": "Probability that humanity has somehow irreversibly messed up our future within 10 years of building powerful AI: 46%",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "His estimate for AI takeover specifically is 22%."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Joep Meindertsma",
   "slug": "joep-meindertsma",
   "role": "Founder, PauseAI",
   "camp": "advocate",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2024-02-16",
     "low": 40,
     "high": 40,
     "display": "40%",
     "source_name": "NRC (Dutch)",
     "source_url": "https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2024/02/16/ai-doomers-zijn-doodsbang-voor-de-computer-ai-zal-proberen-de-macht-over-te-nemen-a4190130",
     "quote": "Die mogelijkheid schat hij op 40 procent. (“He puts that possibility [AI leading to major disasters] at 40 percent.”)",
     "quote_kind": "reported",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Reported speech in Dutch; translation ours. Scope is 'major disasters'."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Eli Lifland",
   "slug": "eli-lifland",
   "role": "Forecaster; co-founder, AI Futures Project",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-02-01",
     "low": 35,
     "high": 40,
     "display": "35–40%",
     "source_name": "EA Forum (podcast transcript)",
     "source_url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QeLE22fefLqKfYTW6/eli-lifland-on-navigating-the-ai-alignment-landscape",
     "quote": "…something like 35 to 40% for any AI-mediated existential catastrophe.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Scott Alexander",
   "slug": "scott-alexander",
   "role": "Writer, Astral Codex Ten",
   "camp": "commentator",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-03-14",
     "low": 33,
     "high": 33,
     "display": "33%",
     "source_name": "Astral Codex Ten",
     "source_url": "https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/why-i-am-not-as-much-of-a-doomer",
     "quote": "I go back and forth more than I can really justify, but if you force me to give an estimate it's probably around 33%",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Emmett Shear",
   "slug": "emmett-shear",
   "role": "Co-founder, Twitch; former interim CEO, OpenAI",
   "camp": "industry",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-06-16",
     "low": 5,
     "high": 50,
     "display": "5–50%",
     "source_name": "The Logan Bartlett Show (quoted by El País)",
     "source_url": "https://english.elpais.com/technology/2023-11-21/emmett-shear-the-new-head-of-openai-a-doomer-who-wants-to-curb-artificial-intelligence.html",
     "quote": "My probability of doom […] is between 5% and 50%. So there's a wide spread.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Podcast quote as transcribed by El País; the original video transcript could not be retrieved."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Dario Amodei",
   "slug": "dario-amodei",
   "role": "CEO, Anthropic",
   "camp": "industry",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-10-06",
     "low": 10,
     "high": 25,
     "display": "10–25%",
     "source_name": "The Logan Bartlett Show",
     "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAaCqj6j5sQ",
     "quote": "…chance that something goes, you know, really quite catastrophically wrong on the scale of, you know, human civilization, you know, it might be somewhere between 10 and 25 percent.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-09-17",
     "low": 25,
     "high": 25,
     "display": "25%",
     "source_name": "Axios AI+ DC Summit",
     "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent",
     "quote": "There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Axios also reports him saying there is a '75% chance that things go really, really well.'"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Yoshua Bengio",
   "slug": "yoshua-bengio",
   "role": "Turing Award laureate; founder, Mila & LawZero",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-07-15",
     "low": 20,
     "high": 20,
     "display": "20%",
     "source_name": "ABC News (Australia), Background Briefing",
     "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-15/whats-your-pdoom-ai-researchers-worry-catastrophe/102591340",
     "quote": "I got around, like, 20 per cent probability that it turns out catastrophic.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Elon Musk",
   "slug": "elon-musk",
   "role": "CEO, Tesla & SpaceX; founder, xAI",
   "camp": "industry",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2024-03-25",
     "low": 10,
     "high": 20,
     "display": "10–20%",
     "source_name": "Abundance360 Summit",
     "source_url": "https://www.diamandis.com/blog/elon-abundance-ai-human-survival",
     "quote": "I think there's some chance that it'll end humanity. I think that's, you know, like I said, I probably agree with Jeff Hinton that it's about, I don't know, 10% or 20% or something like that.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-02-28",
     "low": 20,
     "high": 20,
     "display": "20%",
     "source_name": "The Joe Rogan Experience (via Business Insider)",
     "source_url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-only-chance-of-annihilation-with-ai-2025-2",
     "quote": "The probability of a good outcome is like 80%",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Business Insider summarises this as 'only a 20% chance of annihilation'."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Lina Khan",
   "slug": "lina-khan",
   "role": "Former Chair, US Federal Trade Commission",
   "camp": "policy",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-11-10",
     "low": 15,
     "high": 15,
     "display": "15%",
     "source_name": "Hard Fork (NYT), transcript via Platformer",
     "source_url": "https://www.platformer.news/how-banning-one-palestinian-slogan/",
     "quote": "Roose: So are you zero? Lina Khan: No, no, not zero. Maybe, like, 15 percent.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Vitalik Buterin",
   "slug": "vitalik-buterin",
   "role": "Co-founder, Ethereum",
   "camp": "commentator",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2025-08-12",
     "low": 12,
     "high": 12,
     "display": "12%",
     "source_name": "Doom Debates (Liron Shapira)",
     "source_url": "https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/debate-with-vitalik-buterin-will",
     "quote": "Liron: Vitalik Buterin, what's your P(Doom)? Vitalik: About 12% right now.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Geoffrey Hinton",
   "slug": "geoffrey-hinton",
   "role": "Nobel laureate (Physics, 2024); Professor emeritus, University of Toronto",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2024-12-27",
     "low": 10,
     "high": 20,
     "display": "10–20%",
     "source_name": "The Guardian (BBC Radio 4 Today)",
     "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/27/godfather-of-ai-raises-odds-of-the-technology-wiping-out-humanity-over-next-30-years",
     "quote": "Not really, 10% to 20%.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Answering whether he had changed his earlier one-in-10 estimate of extinction within three decades."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "low": 10,
     "high": 10,
     "display": "~10%",
     "source_name": "BBC Newsnight (via Business Insider)",
     "source_url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/geoffrey-hinton-godfather-of-ai-human-extinction-odds-2026-9",
     "quote": "A 10% chance seems not an unreasonable estimate to me, but nobody really knows how to give a sensible estimate",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "Endorsing another researcher's '>10% within a decade' figure rather than giving his own point estimate."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Nate Silver",
   "slug": "nate-silver",
   "role": "Founder, Silver Bulletin & FiveThirtyEight",
   "camp": "commentator",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2025-01-27",
     "low": 5,
     "high": 10,
     "display": "5–10%",
     "source_name": "Silver Bulletin",
     "source_url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-to-come-to-grips-with-ai",
     "quote": "My estimate of p(doom) would be considered high by normal person standards but is well in line with the expert consensus, which puts the chances at 5 to 10 percent.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Reid Hoffman",
   "slug": "reid-hoffman",
   "role": "Co-founder, LinkedIn",
   "camp": "industry",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2024-08-23",
     "low": 20,
     "high": 20,
     "display": "2 / 10",
     "source_name": "PBS NewsHour",
     "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/as-artificial-intelligence-rapidly-advances-experts-debate-level-of-threat-to-humanity",
     "quote": "I'm going to go for two on that answer.",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "He rated 'the existential threat of A.I.' on a 1–10 scale (1 = no threat, 10 = extinction). That is a threat rating, not a probability, so it is shown but left out of the median.",
     "exclude": true
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Yann LeCun",
   "slug": "yann-lecun",
   "role": "Turing Award laureate; former Chief AI Scientist, Meta",
   "camp": "researcher",
   "statements": [
    {
     "date": "2023-12-16",
     "low": 0.01,
     "high": 0.01,
     "display": "≈0%",
     "source_name": "CBS News",
     "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/artificial-intelligence-yan-lecun-meta-transparency-open-sourcing/",
     "quote": "It's below the chances of an asteroid hitting the earth and, you know, global nuclear war",
     "quote_kind": "direct",
     "verified": true,
     "verified_on": "2026-10-21",
     "note": "LeCun gave no number, only a comparison (below asteroid-impact odds). Recorded as ≈0% (0.01%) for the median."
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "groups": [
  {
   "label": "AI researchers (2,778 surveyed)",
   "display": "5%",
   "value": 5,
   "note": "Median probability of human extinction or similarly severe disempowerment within 100 years; mean 14.4%.",
   "source_name": "AI Impacts, Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI",
   "source_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843",
   "date": "2024-01"
  },
  {
   "label": "AI safety researchers (44 surveyed)",
   "display": "30%",
   "value": 30,
   "note": "Mean estimate of existential catastrophe from insufficient technical AI safety research.",
   "source_name": "Rob Bensinger, Existential risk from AI survey results",
   "source_url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QvwSr5LsxyDeaPK5s/existential-risk-from-ai-survey-results",
   "date": "2021-06"
  },
  {
   "label": "Superforecasters (XPT)",
   "display": "0.38%",
   "value": 0.38,
   "note": "Median probability of AI-caused human extinction by 2100; domain experts in the same tournament gave 3%.",
   "source_name": "Forecasting Research Institute, Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament",
   "source_url": "https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt",
   "date": "2023-07"
  }
 ]
}